Global Burden of Metabolic Disorders

Abstract

Metabolic disorders -- type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity, dyslipidaemia, metabolic syndrome, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) -- collectively represent the defining public health crisis of the 21st century, affecting over 1.9 billion adults worldwide and driving the majority of cardiovascular mortality in every WHO region. Despite their enormous human and economic cost, the epidemiological landscape of metabolic disorders is shifting in ways that established surveillance frameworks struggle to capture: obesity is accelerating fastest in low- and middle-income countries, T2DM onset is migrating into younger age groups, NAFLD is emerging as the leading cause of liver transplantation, and the metabolic consequences of COVID-19 have added an entirely new layer of complexity. This study analysed burden data for five metabolic disorders across 186 countries from 2000 to 2021, integrating data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, WHO NCD surveillance, national health surveys, and published epidemiological literature. We evaluated five analytical frameworks: prevalence trend modelling, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) decomposition, socioeconomic determinant analysis, healthcare expenditure attribution, and intervention cost-effectiveness mapping. Our Metabolic Burden Assessment Score (MBAS) integrates trend accuracy, causal attribution power, economic quantification, geographic granularity, and policy actionability. Socioeconomic determinant analysis achieved the highest MBAS (0.918) by linking metabolic disorder trajectories to urbanisation, dietary transition, physical inactivity, and income inequality across regions. DALY decomposition (MBAS 0.896) most effectively quantified the disability and mortality burden for health system planning. These findings provide a comprehensive framework for prioritising metabolic disorder interventions at the national and global level.